Climate Change in Kenya

Climate Change in Kenya

Differentiating Between Climate Change and El Nino

Some of the variability in Kenya's climate is due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, not the climate crisis. Historically, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 1997 were classified as El Niño years; whereas 1970, 1973, 1975 1988, 1998 as La Niña years. A study focused on historical rainfall variability in several districts in southeast Kenya (North Meru, Central Meru, South Meru, Tharaka, Mbeere, Mwingi, Machakos, Kitui, and Makueni) found that:

"This research establishes that the October- December rains are more reliable as manifested in the amount of rainfall and the greenness of the vegetation compared to the March-May rainfall season. Although these research findings show a common pattern in the amount of rainfall during ENSO events in southeast Kenya, all El Niño and La Niña events are not equal in magnitude. In other words, prediction of an ENSO event does not always lead to an anomaly in southeast Kenya."

Droughts

In Kenya, widespread droughts occurred in the following years, affecting the number of people noted:

• 2004: 2-3 Million people affected
• 1999/2000: 4.4 million
• 1995/96: 1.41 million
• 1983/84: 200,000
• 1980: 40,000
• 1977: 20,000
• 1975: 16,000

Additionally, a drought in the arid and semi-arid districts of Northeast, Rift Valley, Eastern and Coast provinces in 1991-92 affected 1.5 million people.

Droughts in the Lake Victoria Region

A study of rainfall in the years 1961-1999 found that the Lake Victoria region experienced extreme droughts (in which rainfall was less than 25% the normal amount) in 1973–1975, 1981–1985, 1990–1993, and 1996–1997. Additionally, the region experienced severe drought (in which rainfall was between 25% and 50% of the normal amount) in the years 1963, 1967, 1970–1971, and 1980. The study concluded:

"The 1980s and 1990s were drier decades (the 1980s had more drought events than any other decade considered in this study), with lower negative anomalies in comparison to the 1960s and 1970s, and the number of drought events and their severity have been increasing in recent years (especially during the 1990s). In general, drought affects the crop planting seasons of March to May (MAM) and September to November (SON), and leads to increased food imports in the years following the drought. If the present trends persist, the Lake Victoria region will face not only more severe drought events, but also significant reductions in food security."

Floods

Flooding in Kenya occurred in the following years, with locations and the number of people affected noted:

• 2002: Nyanza province, Busia, Tana river basin (150,000 people affected)
• 1997/1998: Widespread (1.5 million people affected)
• 1985: Nyanza and Western provinces (10,000 affected)
• 1982: Nyanza province (4,000 people affected)

The 1997/1998 floods were attributed to El Nino.

Resources and articles

Related Sourcewatch articles

• Ethnic Groups of Kenya
• The Adoption of Maize in Kenya
• Traditional Food Plants of Kenya

External Resources

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Thornton PK, Kruska RL, Henninger N, Kristjanson PM, Reid RS, Atieno F, Odero AN and Ndegwa T 2002. "Mapping poverty and livestock in the developing world," International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
• PACJA, 2009: The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa. The Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, Nairobi, Kenya, 49 pp.
• Samuel W. Muchemi, "Adaptation Lessons Learnt in Kenya on Climate Variability and Change," Kenya Meteorological Department.
• Joseph Curry, "Use of Climate Information in the Greater Horn: Assessing the Needs of Institutional Users," International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, Earth Institute, August 2001.
• Kenya Natural Disaster Profile, United Nations Development Program, Enhanced Security Unit.

External Articles

2010s:

• Philip Thornton and Mario Herrero, "The Inter-Linkages Between Rapid Growth in Livestock Production, Climate Change, and the Impacts on Water Resources, Land Use, and Deforestation," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5178, January 1, 2010.
• Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, B. de Boer, C.A.S. Coelho, and M.K. van Aalst, 2011: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa. Journal of Climate, 24(14), 3718-3732.
• C. A. Shisanya, C. Recha, A. Anyamba, "Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya," International Journal of Geosciences, 2011, 2, 36-47, doi:10.4236/ijg.2011.21004.
• Richard O. Anyah, Weini Qiu. (2010) Characteristic 20th and 21st century precipitation and temperature patterns and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa. International Journal of Climatology, Volume 32, Issue 3, pages 347–363, 15 March 2012
• Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy, "Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa," Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1.

2000s:

• Oba, G., 2001: The importance of pastoralists’ indigenous coping strategies for planning drought management in the arid zone of Kenya. Nomadic Peoples, 5(1), 89-119.
• Kathleen A. Galvin, Randall B. Boone, Nicole M. Smith, and Stacy J. Lynn, "Impacts of climate variability on East African pastoralists: linking social science and remote sensing," Climate Research, Vol. 19: 161–172, 2001.
• Kathleen A Galvin, Philip K Thornton, Randall B Boone, and Jennifer Sunderland, "Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania," African Journal of Range & Forage Science 2004, 21(3): 183–189.
• Eriksen, S.H., K. Brown, and P.M. Kelly, 2005: The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania. Geographical Journal, 171, 287-305.
• Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V., "Changing Climate, Disrupted Livelihoods: The Case of Vulnerability of Nomadic Maasai Pastoralism to Recurrent Droughts in Kajiado District, Kenya," American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #GC12A-02.
• Awuor, C.B., V.A. Orindi, and A. Adwerah, 2008: Climate change and coastal cities: The case of Mombasa, Kenya. Environment and Urbanization, 20(1), 231-242.
• Kathleen A. Galvin, "Transitions: Pastoralists Living with Change," Annual Review of Anthropology, Vol. 38: 185-198 (Volume publication date October 2009), DOI: 10.1146/annurev-anthro-091908-164442.
• Peter G. Jones, and Philip K. Thornton, "Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change," Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 12, Issue 4, June 2009, Pages 427–437.
• Camberlin, P., V. Moron, R. Okoola, N. Philippon, and W. Gitau, 2009: "Components of rainy seasons’ variability in Equatorial East Africa: onset, cessation, rainfall frequency and intensity." Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 98(3-4), 237-249.

1990s:

• Jim Ellis and Kathleen A. Galvin, "Climate Patterns and Land-Use Practices in the Dry Zones of Africa," BioScience, Vol. 44, No. 5, Global Impact of Land-Cover Change (May, 1994), pp. 340-349.