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SW: began coal reserves and climate change section
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==Coal reserves and climate change==
Most climate policy recommendations having to do with coal and climate change have focused on measures to limit the yearly output of greenhouse gases; for example placing a [[Coal moratorium|moratorium]] on new coal-fired power plants that do not sequester their carbon dioxide emissions and then phasing out existing plants. Such recommendations generally assume that coal reserves are too massive to not pose a potential limitation to climate change. If anything, coal usage would rise if other sources, particularly oil, were to run short. For example, in 2004, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded:<ref>B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, L. A. Meyer (eds), [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-ts.pdf "Climate Change 2007: Mitigation: Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,"] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007</ref>
::Absolute fossil fuel scarcity at the global level is not a significant factor in considering climate change mitigation. Conventional oil production will eventually peak, but it is uncertain exactly when and what the repercussions will be. The energy in conventional natural gas is more abundant than in conventional oil but, like oil, is not distributed evenly around the globe. In the future, lack of security of oil and gas supplies for consuming nations may drive a shift to coal, nuclear power and/or renewable energy. There is also a trend towards more efficient and convenient energy carriers (electricity, and liquid and gaseous fuels) instead of solids (high agreement, much evidence) [4.3.1].
According to Dave Rutledge's analysis, the IPCC scenarios assume levels of coal far higher than actually will be mined. For example, the IPCC maximum scenario depends on an ultimate coal usage (past production plus projected future production) of 3,400 billion metric tons (Gt), compared to 663 Gt projected by the analysis.<ref>[http://rutledge.caltech.edu/ "Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change," slide 35,] Dave Rutledge, videotaped lecture and accompanying PowerPoint slides, October 2007</ref>
An implication of the suggestions that coal reserves are significantly overstated is the possibility that depletion of coal reserves, or "peak coal," might limit the extent of potential warming caused by coal, especially if those reserves could be reduced yet further by policies to move some coal into off-limits status. Noting that the a third of U.S. coal reserves are located on federal lands, Dave Rutledge suggests that a government program aimed at sidetracking a portion of those reserves would be more effective in limiting ultimate global warming than attempting to limit annual usage of coal.<ref>[http://rutledge.caltech.edu/ "Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change," slide 52] Dave Rutledge, videotaped lecture and accompanying PowerPoint slides, October 2007</ref>
